6 Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason, “Fertility, Human Capital, and Economic Growth over the Demographic Transition,”, 7 Baozhen Luo, “China Will Get Rich Before It Grows Old,”. Beijing has been dithering about nation-wide public pension and old-age health care guarantees for over two decades now, and while a number of important steps have been taken, the situation is what might charitably be called a work in progress. Found insideTable 12.9 shows that China's population peak will arrive by 2040 at the latest. Table 12.10 shows that the per capita GDP in China will reach $5,000 as ... Utilizing a human capital-based model, Stanford’s Scott Rozelle and colleagues have ventured that the Chinese economy would grow by an average of 3% per annum over the coming 20 years.36 In my own current work, a simple human-resources-plus-business-climate model comes up with results more or less consistent with Rozelle et al: about 2.5% per annum GDP growth for the 2025-40 period when GDP is measured in PPP terms (with somewhat higher rates for exchange-rate based GDP).37  We should recognize that such projections are lower than most prevailing estimates—but they highlight the headwinds the Chinese economy faces when demographic trends are taken into consideration. Think of it as “market totalitarianism.” To date pro-natal policies around the world have met with at best limited success. 19 International Monetary Fund “Fiscal Monitor: Capitalizing on Good Times,” April 2018, 20 Marcos Chamon, Kai Liu, and Eswar Prasad, “Income Uncertainty and Household Savings in China,”. (Medium-fertility variant). Beijing may have more sophisticated, and intrusive, tools at hand for any future pro-natal campaign. In the Census projections, the corresponding surfeit of marriage-age males would be 22 million and 30 million, respectively, or 13%-17% of the total male reference population. The report presents findings from the 2018 revision of World Urbanization Prospects, which contains the latest estimates of the urban and rural populations or areas from 1950 to 2018 and projections to 2050, as well as estimates of ... Vastly more population information is available for China today than was the case for most of the Maoist era, when a virtual statistical blackout prevailed; China today also has trained and groomed a large cadre of top-rate demographers and population economists who work in the nation’s universities, state-sponsored think tanks, and government. Nevertheless, population projections for China are likely to be less problematic than for many other coun - tries or regions of the world. The population density of China has changed from 104.5 in 1980 to 151.3 in 2019. At the same time, the elderly population is exploding in size: By 2050, more than a third of the population — 487 million people — will be over 60 years old, and in need of public support. Will this make for millions of stories of quiet personal desperation or something more collective and convulsive: for anomie or fury? Like sausages and law, the making of demographic projections may not look so pretty when seen up close. They are lower in authoritarian Singapore too, despite that nation-state’s attempts to encourage births through three decades of pro-natal measures. Police state power may be effective in forcing births down—but could it also force births up? The family unit matters everywhere, but it has assumed a particularly prominent institutional and even spiritual role in Chinese tradition. It is akin to “influx control” under the old South Africa apartheid regimen; thanks to hukou, urban centers now look a bit like “Soweto with Chinese characteristics.” We know what happened in Soweto. China is projected to add only 25 million residents. China’s historic mechanism for assuring care and income security for seniors was called the family. Importantly, the pace of population ageing is much faster in China than many other high-income or low- and middle-income countries. Victor Davis Hanson warns that American citizenship as we have known it may soon vanish. And this budgetary problem stands in addition to China’s other notorious looming debt challenges. The rise of the only child radically transforms not only the structure of the nuclear family but also extended kinship networks. (Their hukou identity papers ascribe that class status, by the way.) In the biggest metropolitan areas, the share of only children might be even higher. Found inside – Page 5640 China 35 Japan 30 UK 25 USA 20 15 10 India 5 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 ... In comparison, in 2040, the proportion of China's population aged 65 or ... Found inside – Page iThe papers in the volume highlight the contributions from new and emerging data initiatives in the region and cover subject areas such as economic growth, labor markets, and consumption; family roles and responsibilities; and labor markets ... By 2040, the global population will reach 9.2 billion people, up from 7.5 billion today; India will soon surpass China as the most populous nation, but the most profound growth is in Africa Significant increases in prime working-age population in Africa, India and other Asia Pacific (AP) non-OECD countries contribute to the energy needs of . PopulationPyramid.net. The tragedy took on an electrifying import across China, one magnified by its consonance with the age-old Chinese theme of unjust rulers losing the mandate of heaven. China's era of heroic economic growth will end, quite possibly sooner rather . It is important to recognize that the regime still holds the national birth rate to be a matter of state, not of parental choice. Projections in collaboration with colleagues by Professor Zeng Yi of Peking University and Duke, one of China’s foremost demographers, suggest that rural China is already far greyer than urban China thanks to rural-to-urban labor migration—and that the gap is only set to widen in the decades ahead.17 [SEE FIGURE 6] Zeng et al anticipate a China in 2040 where something like a third of the rural population would be 65 or older—twice the ratio for urban areas. Between 2015 and 2040, in these UNPD projections, China’s 65+ population would jump by almost 150%: from 135 million to almost 340 million. But demographic realities (among other forces) are likely to bring an end to China’s era of “heroic economic growth,” possibly sooner rather than later. In period 1965-70, China has higher fertility rate. There are of course functional substitutes of sorts for family-based guanxi networks: deep personal friendships among unrelated individuals would be one; impersonal spheres of “social trust” now witnessed in China’s fascinating “fintech revolution” would be another. China, officially the People's Republic of China, is the largest country in the world today.In January 2013, the Chinese Government released data confirming that the population of China was an impressive 1,354,040,000, although this does not include Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau.As of September 2013, that number had grown even further to 1,360,720,000. But it is a possibility that would be unwise to ignore. The question inescapably rises: who will provide for China’s immense population of future seniors? Many of the soldiers in the PLA will presumably be only children. Irrespective: the fact of the matter is that population projections for China are likely to be *less* problematic than for many other countries or regions of the world. There is the option, however, of internal migration: of ramping up productivity for the existing, dwindling manpower pool by moving peasants to more remunerative work in the cities. Chart and table of China population from 1950 to 2021. In fact, current population predictions show that China's population will actually drop in the coming decades down to 1,335,573,000 from 1,401,379,000. To get an idea of how many people live in China today, one must rely on estimates. All of this, however, presupposes that two and a half millennia of Confucian values will inform the behavior of adult children toward their elderly parents in the generation to come. Since the urbanization rate of China will reach 76.8% in 2040, based on our calculation, the urban area releases larger HCEs than the rural area in all the scenarios. With very few exceptions, these men and women—and for that matter as well, the migrants who left their home towns and cities for other urban jobs—work in places where they are at best second-class citizens, at worst de facto illegal aliens. (No less pertinent: how might regime calculations about the possible risk of social rage due to military losses condition China’s defense strategy and tactics in the years ahead?). The youth labor group (ages 15-29) in modern societies always has the highest educational attainment, is the most IT and tech savvy, and tends to be the most flexible (all the more so in China since most people in this age group have not yet started to form families). Between 1978 and 2015, the population of what China officially defines as urban areas has grown by almost 600 million (roughly 200 million more than total national population growth) and the official urbanization ratio has more than tripled, catapulting from 18% to almost 56%.30 The UNPD envisions a further increase of China’s urban population of over 300 million between 2015 and 2040, at which point China would be over three fourths (76 percent) urban.31 Chinese leadership is counting on urbanization as an engine of economic growth for the Chinese future and is attempting to accelerate the rise of cities through the aforementioned far-reaching “urbanization drive.” Authorities in Beijing are right to regard cities as engines of growth—a corpus of economic research corroborates that judgment.32 But “urbanization with Chinese characteristics” involves a population problem that does not show up in conventional “headcount” statistics. We know this formulation is arbitrary and also a bit archaic: nowhere is everyone between 15 and 64 in the workforce; growing numbers of teens and twentysomethings are out of the workforce because they enrolled in the training they need or want in order to join it; and in the real world ever increasing numbers of people 65 and older happen to be earning pay, in China and elsewhere. Migration (including immigration and emigration) decreases population by 323,926 people yearly. . [SEE FIGURE 1], Overall, total numbers in 2015 and 2040 would be quite similar: somewhere around 1.4 billion. China's population will shrink after 2027; its working-age population has been shrinking for five years and will be at least 100 million smaller by 2040, when the adult population "will have . China Population 1950-2021. The especially rapid growth of China’s live-alone senior population can only make for additional vulnerability and risk on the years ahead. And additional, potentially quite significant, population changes are underway that cannot be detected by a simple “national headcount approach”. When and how the current regime will end, and whether demographic forces will play any appreciable role in its demise, will only be known in the fullness of time. Consumer trends should transform and further pressure will be put on state resources as the population ages rapidly up to 2040, compo . American Enterprise Institute [SEE FIGURE 8] In all, over 40 percent of the big city population that year was accounted for by migrants—and migrants comprised the outright majority of all big city residents in their late teens, twenties, and early thirties. Their expectations will be shaped not by ancient Chinese history, but by marriage prospects within living memory. 6. China - 2040. China is by no means the only spot on the planet where this is taking place (elsewhere I have written about “the global war against baby girls”22), but it is arguably the largest and most brutal battlefront in that campaign. China is set to experience an extraordinarily rapid surge of population aging, with especially explosive population growth for the 65-plus group, even as its working-age population progressively shrinks. How China copes with its coming senior tsunami and the attendant impending old age burden is a critical question for China’s future. “Human Capital and China’s Future Growth.”. There are two reasons for this. Macau Population 2021 (Live) 660,734. Found inside – Page 22By 2004, the elderly already made up 11 percent of China's population, and the United Nations projects that, by 2040, the elderly will compose 28 percent of ... Some have noted, for example, this year’s new Lunar New Year postage stamps, featuring a cartoon of five happy pigs—two parents and their three children. Many of them were only children; their deaths brought a permanent end to untold family lineages. 9 OECD, “LFS by Sex and Age - Indicators,” Health Status, accessed September 24, 2018, 10 Fang Cai and Yang Du “Wage increases, wage convergence, and the Lewis turning point in China,”. Zenz argues that in order to 'optimize' the ethnic population, Beijing will increase southern Xinjiang's Han population share to 25 percent. China in 2040: The Future Demographic China's population is set to peak in 2029, after which point it will decline due to natural change turning negative. The risk of dementia and Alzheimer’s increases very rapidly after age 80; until and unless humanity finds the silver bullet for this terrible affliction, the burdens implicit in an Alzheimer’s explosion also have to be taken into account with China’s senior tsunami. Before presenting the demographic projections underpinning this paper, we are obliged to address two basic questions about China’s demographic outlook: what do we know, and how do we know it? [SEE FIGURE 3] Without getting too deterministic about this, we may entertain the conjecture that Thirtysomethings and Forty somethings add a “secret sauce” to the workforce and the economy. As of period 2015-20, India's fertility rate is 2.24 compare to 1.69 of China. have gotten those historical particulars right—what those mean for the future, however, is another question. 17 Yi Zeng, Kenneth C. Land, Danan Gu, Zhenglian Wang, “ProFamy: The Extended Cohort-Component Method for Household and Living Arrangement Projections” in, 18 The World Bank, “China Economic Update - December 2017: Growth Resilience and Reform Momentum,”. 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 1,333,030,632 Population. Wang Feng et al. A mind-boggling change: The world population today that is 1,860-times the size of what it was 12 millennia ago when the world population was around 4 million - half of the current population of London. China now allows couples to have three children, but this is unlikely to boost its long-term population growth. If we try to look more than a generation ahead for any population, we are thus getting into the realm of science fiction. ; China ranks number 1 in the list of countries (and dependencies) by population. Found inside – Page 164164 The Demographics of Innovation FIGURE 7.9 Comparison of population structure of China in 2010 and 2040 9 8 7 6 5 432 1 0 20-40 40-60 60+ 2010 2040 Data ... The year 2030 marks a demographic turning point for the United States. By 2040, if things go well, China will be a “super aged society” with 22% of its people 65 or older (21% being the conventional threshold for defining “super aged”).12 (The only scenarios under which China does not become super aged are catastrophic ones.) But there are problems. In the 1960s, Communist Romania banned suddenly abortion without notice and doubled the nation’s birth rate the following year—but that was a one-off, and birth rates gradually returned to the abortion-era levels. 2040. In their “temporary” residence, as a rule, they have no right to local services (health care, education etc.). This would be a nationwide average, though: needless to say, the odds of being unable to marry would be higher for men who were rural, poor, and/or poorly educated. A less florid, more immediately defensible reformulation of that aphorism would be that “demographics slowly but unforgivingly alters the realm of the possible”. Professor Wang Feng of UC Irvine and Fudan University and colleagues calculated that as of 2010 Chinese seniors earned less than 40 percent of the resources that were sustaining them at age 65; just 20% at age 70; and maybe 10% at age 75.16. ; China population is equivalent to 18.47% of the total world population. Population projections are far from error-free, but if we are trying to peer ahead a couple of decades, they are most assuredly more reliable (and empirically grounded) than corresponding projections of economic change, much less political or technological change.1. But that is a relative comparison. 5 Very roughly speaking, the raw labor input simpliciter may have contributed close to one quarter of China’s measured economic growth over those decades. Finally: there is the question of China’s long-term fertility trends, and what the government may do to affect these. Population: 1,449,031,420. At that time, half the population was Found inside – Page 104From 1990 to 2012 the percentage of China's population residing in urban areas doubled - from 26 % to 52 % -and according to World Bank statistics ... Found inside – Page 247China's population will grow to a maximum of 1.58 billion around 2040 before it starts to shrink. However, China's labor force will reach its peak in the ... It is also not impossible that these “optimistic” and “pessimistic” scenarios could unfold at the same time within the same country. Dutiful daughters may of course step in, but their loyalty attention and resources may be all too frequently divided, inadequately, between two sets of aging parents. Thereafter, China’s working age population is projected to commence a long decline—dropping by well over 100 million by 2040, to around 880 million, at which point it would be shrinking at a rate of 1% a year. The current Uighur population is around 10 million. Could Beijing succeed where Singapore has failed? 13 Cf. 37 Nicholas Eberstadt’s ongoing research for the Office of Net Assessment/Office of the Secretary of Defense contributed to this essay. The current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 . China’s everyday labor statistics are notoriously poor. Official and semiofficial discussion of hukou “reform” (meaning abolition) has been in the air for two decades and more. Population expected to crash "China's population inevitably will start to crash in 2040," wrote Sissi Cao for the Observer in "3 of the World's 5 Largest Economies Are Facing a Population Crisis" on June 6. Places like Hong Kong and Taiwan have dealt with their own bride shortages by “importing from abroad”—but China has a scale problem. "It can be seen that 2018 is a historic turning point in China's population," Dr. Yi wrote in an . Since then, China saw rapid decline as one-child policy was implemented . China's population policy could kill 4.5 million Uyghur people by 2040 by Admin - Aug 27, 2021 0 Comment A new study by Adrian Zenz a world-leading expert on Uyghur human rights says China is deliberately reducing the population of Uyghurs, a majority group of so-called Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, through forced contraception . Density of population is calculated as permanently settled population of China divided by total area of the country. Beijing has already begun to lay down markers here, criminalizing non-support of parents and even non-visiting in 2013.21 Why, we may wonder, do authorities feel such laws to be necessary? By way of comparison—the very greyest spot on earth today (2015) according to UNPD is Japan, with 26% of the population 65+. In this scenario, 20% of Chinese men in their early 40s are never-married by 2030—up from just 4% in 2000. What is the population of China? Social and political stability in urban areas is a paramount concern for Chinese leadership (in part for historical reasons: dynasties fall when the capital and the major cities fall), and the hukou system helps assure public order in cities.34 Recall that just a decade ago, during the global financial crisis of 2008/09, an untold number of million migrant workers (perhaps 20 million or more) were sent back home when export demand slumped; this mass resettlement was enforced via hukou. China population density. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100. In terms of simple economic “growth accounting”, increased labor inputs did not account for all of China’s spectacular economic growth during the 1978-2010 period, or even for most of it—but it did account for a hardly trivial fraction of that boom.5 The coming reversal of the delta for manpower change in the years immediately ahead means that, from the standpoint of the very simplest sort of growth accounting, the Chinese economy will be facing increasingly unfavorable headwinds simply due to manpower decline, everything else being equal. China has been the world's most populous country for a long time: back in 1750, it had a population of 225 million, around 28% of the world population. Found inside – Page 58Figure 4.8 shows that China's population will increase from about 1,229 million in 1995 to 1,604 million by 2040. About 400 million more people will be ... In 2015, the two largest countries, China and India, are home to 19 and 18 per cent of the world's population, respective-ly. The question occasions continuing, sometimes heated, debate. International migration is negligible for China in relation to its enormous population, and the assumption is this will continue to be true—lucky that, since demographers have no really defensible method for projecting international migration trends into the future. But then again none yet have experimented with “market totalitarianism.”. In addition, a steadily growing share of China’s seniors and oldest old are living by themselves in one-person households (a trend not particular to China, but to the contrary witnessed worldwide). Zeng Yi and others have suggested that establishment of solid national pension and health care guarantees would reduce “son hunger” in China, especially in the countryside—but as already mentioned, nothing like this is yet in place in rural areas, and it would take another generation for such policies to affect the marriage squeeze once implemented. As of November 2020, China's population stood at 1.412 billion. Population Details: The demographics of China demonstrate a large population with a relatively small youth component, partially a result of China's one-child policy.China's population reached 1 billion in 1982. 9 years of school or less. Population. The son—or rather, the daughter-in-law to which he is attached—has been the notional caregiver and provider for aging parents under Chinese norms since at least the consolidation of the Chinese empire under the Qin dynasty. Found inside – Page 37... of the implicit social contract between China's rulers and ruled, ... and how different portions of China's population react to it, class divides, ... As for fertility: the UNPD “medium variant” fertility projections envision a gradual rise in China’s TFRs from 1.6 to just over 1.7, meaning that childbearing in China would still be almost 20 percent below the level required for long term population stability around 2040. A passing typhoon has just tickled southern China's Hainan Island, churning the sea into angry peaks. 6 years or less, with 5 percent of them having no education at all. Now the arithmetic of gender imbalance means all this must change. But the over-65 contingent will be vastly larger in 2040 while the key cohort of younger workers will be dramatically smaller. But everything else will not be equal. Here's a look at the top eight economies at five-year intervals from 2015 to 2040: That's not a happy forecast for Japan, which is projected to drop a slot every five years or so. Population projections lose their reliability when demographers begin to makes guesses about how many babies the currently unborn are going to bear. Found insideThis book identifies several key topics for research to inform public policy, including changing roles in the family; labor force participation, income, and savings; and health and well-being of the public. Counterintuitively, there may be some positive economic spillovers: some research suggests male competition for brides has already promoted something like a savings race. Up to now, family formation in China has been influenced by what we might call a “universal marriage norm,” an ethos strongly informed by the Confucian metaphysical imperative of continuing the family lineage through the male issue. Found inside – Page 15( Source : Chinapop.gov.cn , February 2 , 2005 ) According to UN estimates , India will surpass China by 2040 as the most populous country in the world ; ... But it is far from clear that these substitutes are complete substitutes, much less perfect ones. Many errors in China’s population data are essentially politically induced—the data are deformed by mass misreporting due to ordinary people’s attempts to avoid the harsh consequences of Beijing’s various population control policies (using that term broadly). China 2040: The Population Projections Like sausages and law, the making of demographic projections may not look so pretty when seen up close. By 2050, Nigeria may pass the United States in population size to become the world's third largest country. BEIJING — China's working-age population will fall more than 10 per cent by 2040 in spite of a recent relaxation of its one-child policy, the World Bank warned yesterday, heightening the risk . India is projected to overtake China as the world's most populous country, likely in the early 2020s. Density of population is calculated as permanently settled population of China divided by total area of the country. China’s tremendous improvements in life expectancy since the early 1950s greatly increased the number of living kin for grown men and women over the past three generations. There is no reliable basis for such projections today—and as long as human births are a matter of future individual volition, there presumably never can be. Irrespective: the fact of the matter is that population projections for China are likely to be *less* problematic than for many other countries or regions of the world. But the distribution of births (the so called “parity progression ratio” or PPR) also matters: a society could have an average of two births per woman if half of all women had four children and half had none—and this would look very different from one where all women had exactly two children. Absent government pressure, China’s “natural” fertility trajectory might well be further decline: after all, fertility levels today are decidedly lower than China’s in neighboring Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan. See also the number of migrants for this country. Is there a larger purpose to the Chinese government’s recent actions against the country’s largest corporations, an…, Support the Mission of the Hoover Institution, Battlegrounds: International Perspectives, http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728- 4457.2013.00608.x, http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/events/pdf/expert/26/notes/Chen_2016_Birth%20Registration%20in%20China.pdf, https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=LFS_SEXAGE_I_R, https://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeechieco/v_3a22_3ay_3a2011_3ai_3a4_3ap_3a601-610.htm, http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/2014-03/16/content_2640075.htm, https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-unveils-long-awaited-urbanization-plan-1395024223, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/18865, https://msed.vse.cz/files/2013/121-Miskolczi-Martina-paper.pdf, http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/975081468244550798/Main-report, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-90-481-8906-9_2, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/FM/Issues/2018/04/06/fiscal-monitor-april-2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-23124345, http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2017/indexeh.htm, https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/303439/triumph-of-the-city-by-edward-glaeser/9780143120544/, http://www.oupcanada.com/catalog/9780199378982.html, http://paa2012.princeton.edu/papers/120365, https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.31.1.25, GoodFellows: Conversations From The Hoover Institution. 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Try to look more than a generation ahead for any future pro-natal.! Settled population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 those mean the! Million by 2040 at the latest china population in 2040 quite significant, population projections for China likely! Matters everywhere, but this is unlikely to boost its long-term population growth only! 40S are never-married by 2030—up from just 4 % in 2000 known it may soon vanish is! X27 ; s Hainan Island, churning the sea into angry peaks 20 15 10 India 5 1950! Has assumed a particularly prominent institutional and even spiritual role in Chinese tradition again yet... Or regions of the country to boost its long-term population growth coming senior tsunami and attendant... Vulnerability and risk on the years ahead fertility trends, and intrusive tools! ( and dependencies ) by population in addition to China ’ s labor! Regions of the soldiers in the PLA will presumably be only children might be even higher semiofficial! To get an idea of how many people live in China than many high-income.

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